RIP Allard Baird

The Royals finally fired Allard Baird today.

Baird talked a good game for a few years, and I think he made tremendous strides as a GM with the Royals, but this was a move that had to be made. The Royals need a complete overhaul of their management structure. Let's hope Dayton Moore is up to the task.

I will say this, though: Moore's request for complete control over baseball operations makes me think that there is a lot less blame on Baird's shoulders for this mess.

My guess is that in the inner circles of Major League Baseball, everybody knows that his hands have been tied and a lot of moves couldn't be made. I wouldn't be surprised to see Baird get picked up quickly by another team (probably Atlanta now) and put in a high-ranking Assistant GM position.

His knack for finding above average fringe players will be very useful.

What Would You Have Done?

Anthony Giacalone at Baseball Think Factory gives a pretty good rundown of the Royals offseason moves and how they really did have a decent plan going into this season.

It's easy to knock the Royals these days, but there have been some moves that have worked out this season.

Sweep!!!

KC 10, Cle 8

Sure, we gave up runs late to let Cleveland back into it, but the pitchers K'd nine in nine innings and Guiel hit another homer to put the good guys in front for good.

Burgos has done a good job of not getting fazed by trouble and the fans get to eat some more free donuts.

Today is a good day.

So, You Can't Hack it as a Royals Fan

What a pu$$y.

This guy.

Two or three hundred loss seasons and he's selling his "fandom" for a few hundred dollars. I hate to tell it to the people who put up the cash for this transaction, but that "loyalty" ain't worth the eBay server space it was loaded on.

I hate to break it to all the naysayers out there, but every owner wants to make money. Every General Manager is trying to put a winning team on the field. Every player thinks that they should be getting paid more than the other guys.

And, every fan has a right to bitch and moan as long and loudly as they want to about the failings of all of these people.

But, no one has the right to call themselves a loyal fan if they are willing to give it all away for a few hundred dollars.

Rooting for the Royals takes balls. If you can't take the pain, then we don't want your sissy-ass hanging around here anyway. Everybody knows going into the season that an incredible amount of things must go right for us to have a chance at even breaking 500.

The true fan accepts that the following things will happen:

Mike Sweeney's back will go out on him. The pitching staff will be disabled, ineffective and oftentimes both. The young hitters will be overmatched. The veterans will be past their prime because anyone really worth a damn can make a lot more money on one of the coasts.

For Christ's sake, Paul Byrd took LESS MONEY to play for a team that wasn't the Royals, did you really think that this was the year things would be different?

Look, I hate watching this team lose games in ways previously unimaginable (Future headline: "Royals Pitchers Walk Nine Straight Batters, Lose Five-Run Lead, Game"), but I'm sticking around.

I'm watching the minor leagues. I'm wearing my powder blue Bo Jackson jersey. I'm going to drive through three hours of rush hour traffic to watch my boys play the Angels in June.

I'm a Royals fan because it's about the past thirty-seven years, not just the past ten.

To steal a line from J Rob: Go Royals! 143-19! You're the best!

Wow... This Sums it Up

From today's KC Star:

"Singles by Mark Grudzielanek and Sweeney marked the first back-to-back hits this season by the Royals in the first inning."

Keep Ya Head Up

You know it's hard out here for a Royals fan
When he tryin' to help his team to get one little win
For the Yankees got the money and the Rays got a plan
And a whole lot of columnists keep on talkin' shit

So, I'm trying to find something positive in the Royals sorrowful start to the season, and Estaban German putting up an OPS over 1.000 doesn't seem to cut it since most of his playing time is going to Tony Graffanino, anyway.

Instead, I'll point you to an awesome site called Fan Graphs, which has a cool Win Probablility feature that shows which team has the best chance to win throughout a game based on similar score/inning/runners on base scenarios from the last season.

The first thing you'll notice is that it's bad form to spot your opponents five runs in the first inning, but you probably knew that already. What I'm trying to focus on is this:

In Seven of the 12 games played so far this year, the Royals have had a better than 50% chance to win the game in the sixth inning or later.

Now, true to form, the Royals have found many ways to lose games late (wasn't our bullpen the only GOOD thing from last year?), but if you look at their season on a game by game basis, the team has actually been competitive.

I won't lie to you. Losing eight in a row hurts. But, it is too early in the season to get bogged down by some bad breaks. EVERYBODY is underperforming for the Royals right now. The playoffs were never a real possibility for this team, but I still think a run at .500 is possible.

Hang in there.

The Sucking of Sisco

Andrew Sisco had another poor outing for the Royals today.

I'm wondering if it isn't best to handle Sisco this year the way he was handled last year. Only bringing him in during non-critical situations. Let him build up his confidence and control. Then start trusting him in tight spots.

I admit, up three runs isn't a tight spot, but he was obviously shaky after the first couple of batters. The dude needed to be lifted and fast.

Guiel Gets Cut

Shane Costa won the 4th outfielder job with the Royals.

This isn't that big of a deal, but Guiel is one of the guys I like to root for. I hope he gets a call earlier this year than last if anybody goes down (Laverne, I'm looking at you).

My man AG was having a great spring, putting up a 351/479/622 line in 37 at bats.

Joe McEwing was also cut after posting 436/500/667 in 39 ABs. Super Joe put up a fuss (I haven't seen any Guiel quotes yet).

Let's take a quick look at each player's OPS this spring against last year, along with those of the guys who stole their jobs, and see who has more right to complain.

Player  Spring  2005
J-Mac   1167    558
Graffy  712     791
-------------------
AG      1101    805
Costa   738     621

I'm sure they'll both have plenty of time to debate their merits while waiting at the bus station in Omaha.

Graffy's Back

The Royals picked up Tony Graffanino today.

Tony Graffanino

309/366/425

OPS+ 161

I'm a big fan of this move. Graffy has a solid track record as a utility infielder and the Royals are only obligated to pay for him this year.

Hopefully, this move will keep Joe McEwing in Omaha and give Estaban German a chance to prove he can do something.

For all of the bitching I keep seeing on the internet about the Royals pickups this off-season, I don't see anybody offering a better solution. Last year, the team was derided for bringing up young players too soon.

What the moves from this off season have done is given every prospect more time to develop in the minors and avoided crippling the team with long-term contracts.

I, for one, am excited to have at least semi-competent big leaguers to watch this season while following the progress of guys like Alex Gordon and Billy Butler in the minors.

Who are These Guys? - Outfield

Our final installment for the position players will look at the men patrolling the vast amount of turf at The 'K' this year.

David DeJesus
293/359/445
OPS+ 114

David’s biggest drawback as a professional ballplayer has been his susceptibility to injury. A shoulder injury kept him out for the last month of last season and he missed significant time early in his minor league career.

The Royals just inked DeJesus to a long-term deal that will buy out his first year of free agency. If he can stay healthy, then this will be a really good move by the team, as he has maintained both his patience and his pop at the plate. The key will be getting Buddy Bell to realize that he is not a natural base stealer so that his times on base are not all wasted.

Reggie Sanders
271/340/546
OPS+ 126

Reginald, or Laverne as I like to call him, is the kind of power hitting corner outfielder Allard Baird has been trying to get for years. The problem is, he needed to get Sanders several years ago.

At 38, the Royals will need to be careful with the slugger from South Carolina. When he’s in the lineup, he will be a definite threat behind Mike Sweeney, but he needs to get more than the 295 at bats he cobbled together with St. Louis last year while battling leg problems.

Here is another fun site that shows how Sanders stats compare against the league. You can see that he is an average on-base guy, but almost always bests the league in power.

Emil Brown
286/349/455
OPS+ 113

Why did Emil Brown spend so much of his life languishing in the minor leagues, only to explode (if hitting .286 can be considered “exploding”) as a thirty-year old sensation with the Royals?

Let’s just say that last year wasn’t Emil’s first crack at the majors:

OPS     Min    MLB
1996    900    DNP
1997    DNP    588
1998    895    575
1999    865    357
2000    891    635
2001    974    583

’98 and ’99 were cup of coffee call ups, but Brown received significant opportunities to prove his metal in the Bigs before he was labeled a quadruple-A player and languished as a spare part for the Tampa Bay, Cincinnati, St. Louis and Houston farm systems.

The hope for this season is that Emil doesn’t fade back from his first real progress as a major-league hitter. If he can post solid numbers for the Royals in left field (and maybe catch just a few more balls), he will help provide some extra pop behind Sweeney and Sanders in the lineup.

Aaron Guiel
294/355/450
OPS+ 114

Another player who languished for years in the minors before finally getting a chance with the Royals, Guiel was derailed by the cruel hand of fate when he developed vision problems during spring training in 2004.

A few laser surgeries later, he spent most of 2005 tearing up triple-A (OPS of 909) while luminaries such as Terrance Long (699) and Eli Marrero (563) manned the outfield of Kaufman stadium.

Aaron is one of my favorite Royal players, and while I know I should want them to give the 4th outfield job to the younger Chip Ambres, I really hope that one more Canadian makes the team.

Chip Ambres
241/323/379
OPS+ 88

Acquired in the Tony Graffanino trade from the Red Sox last year, Ambres is a high OBP guy with a little speed and some power. His rate stats have held up well in the minors over the last few years, but Chip has not had a great spring so far and was only so-so in his first bit of major-league action last year.

Given the fragile nature of the Royals outfield (Sanders rarely plays a full season and DeJesus pulled a hamstring the other day), Ambres will definitely have an opportunity to prove himself this year.

Who are These Guys? - Middle Infield

Mark Grudzielanek
294/334/407
OPS+ 92

Alphabet Soup #2, or “Grudzie” as I like to call him, has been brought in to ensure that yet another year is added to the streak of consecutive seasons with a different starting second baseman. (who would have imagined that Carlos Febles from ’99 through ’03 would be considered stable?)

Mark is a better than average line-drive hitter (his 23.6% rate ranked 21st among qualified batters last season) which helps him hit for a good average despite his low walk rate. Buddy Bell has already inserted Grudzie into the second spot in the batting order, so it’s likely his line-drive ability will be quickly neutralized by many requests to bunt people over.

Angel Berroa
270/305/375
OPS+ 81

Angel will be making some real money this year, the second of his five-year contract. The hope is that the 2003 Rookie of the Year can find some of the patience that allowed him to get on base at a 338 clip that season. If he can also manage to hit 20 home runs and throw the ball anywhere near Minkie’s glove, then he'll start to be worth the two million dollars he’s getting in ’06.

Who Are These Guys? - Third Base

Mark Teahen
246/309/376
OPS+ 82

Marky-mark was slated to begin the 2005 season at Omaha when Chris Truby (who has probably gained more notoriety from this running gag at Baseball Think Factory then his actual ability to play baseball) broke his wrist.

Teahen, who was never considered a power threat, lost even more value in the majors when he failed to maintain the high on-base percentage that had served him so well in the minors (and bore him special mention in the book “Moneyball”).

Check out Teahen’s numbers over the course of last season:

Month  AB  AVG/OBP/SLG
April  15  200/294/333
May    80  250/286/388
June   85  282/322/353
July   86  233/320/384
Aug    82  159/258/232
Sept   95  295/346/505

If you take out the sinkhole that was last August, Teahen would have ended the season with a 266/322/408 line with improving numbers every month. Teahen needs to keep showing this improvement if he wants to keep manning the hot corner when first round draft pick Alex Gordon gets the knack of big league ball.

Esteban German
.750 .750 1.000
OPS+ 354

Don’t get too excited by those 2005 numbers, they were compiled over 4 at bats in junk time last September. German hit 313/400/423, which are decent but not great numbers for the Texas League, at the Rangers AAA affiliate in Oklahoma.

The Royals picked German up in the Rule 5 draft earlier this year and he’s currently listed as the utility infield candidate to give time off to Teahen and Mark Grudzilanek at second.

Baird has had some luck with the Rule 5 draft in the past (Andy Sisco looks like a steal), so the jury is still out on German. At age 27, he’s a little too old to be considered a prospect any more, but then again, so was Emil Brown last year.

Who are These Guys? - First Base

Allard Baird has made it sort of a hobby to stockpile guys who can’t field very well, but do mash the ball a bit. The staggering amount of offensive talent the Royals have jammed at the wrong side of the defensive spectrum would cripple most fans’ spirits. I prefer to refer to it as “depth.”

Mike Sweeney
300/347/517
OPS+ 127

Sween-dog is officially listed as the third-string first baseman behind Doug Mientkiewicz and Matt Stairs. Setting aside the injury risk associated with playing in the field, here are Sweeney’s fielding percentage stats against the league over the last four years:

       Sween  League
2002   .991    .993
2003   .990    .993 
2004   .992    .994
2005   .998    .994

Sweeney has consistently bested the league in range factor and ranks as above average over the last four years using David Pinto’s probabilistic model of range (admittedly, barely).

Look, I’m not saying I’d rather have Sweeney digging Angel Berroa’s throws out of the dirt instead of Minky (as I have decided I shall call he who cannot be spelled correctly), I just want it to be noted that the conventional wisdom about Sweeney being a terrible first baseman is over-hyped.

As for batting, Mike is still the best stick in the clubhouse and even with a decline in productivity will probably lead the team in a variety of categories.

Doug Mientkiewicz
240/322/407
OPS+ 91

The human scrabble test brings his gold glove to Kansas City with high hopes on improving what was a horrible defense in 2004.

Along with the defensive rep, Minky also brings the baggage of having been demoted to a defensive back-up for the 2004 Red Sox and struggling through nagging injuries with the Mets last year.

While he’s never been much of a power threat, Doug has been a good on-base guy who doesn’t strike out that often. According to this fun toy from SG at Replacement Level Yankees Weblog, they Royals would benefit the most from having Minky lead off the lineup. Unfotunately, I have a feeling that his 11 career stolen bases will keep the team from doing something so radical.

My Best Guess: David DeJesus continues to get thrown out at a 50% rate on the base paths while Minky keeps taking walks after Angel Berroa strikes out.

Matt Stairs
275/373/444
OPS+ 118

My second-favourite Canadian returns to the team this year and finds himself listed as the number two option at first base, right field and designated hitter. Over the last three years, Stairs is a 285/373/496 hitter against right-handed pitchers, which makes him a very valuable commodity on a team with injury risks like Reggie Sanders and Mike Sweeney.

The big worry this year is that Stairs will be blocking a young talent like Justin Huber from having a chance at steady playing time at the big-league level. This is really the tip of the iceberg for the Royals, who have prospects like Huber, Billy Butler and Alex Gordon who are all piling up in the minors with big sticks and concrete gloves.

Fun Fact: Stairs placed 17th in MVP voting in 1999, probably coming up short because the voters were unimpressed with his two stolen bases.

Who are These Guys? - Catcher

Now that Spring Training is in full swing, I thought I'd bring back one of the more popular features from last year.

I'll be listing the 2005 batting line for each player (AVG/OBP/SLG) along with their OPS+, followed by some brief commentary.

Please check the Note About Stats for information about these numbers.

We’ll start with the men behind the plate.

John Buck
242/287/389
OPS+ 79

The good news is that Johnny boy increased his on-base percentage a whopping seven percentage points last year. The bad news is that this ranked 26th in the American League for catchers (you don’t want to know how he did for MLB).

Once Buck finagled his way onto the base paths, he proved to be of little threat, going two for four in stolen bases.

While Buck managed to cut down on his strikeout rate from the year before – whiffing 22% of the time versus 31% in 2004 – when he did hit the ball, it wasn’t very hard. His line-drive percentage (courtesy of The Hardball Times) for ’05 was a paltry 16.9%, ranking 20th among AL catchers.

The Positive Spin: If Buck can continue to cut down on his strikeouts and guess right on a few more fastballs this year, he may get that slugging percentage back into the .400 stratosphere those other catchers in the league are always bragging about.

Paul Bako
250/362/300
OPS+ 81

Behind Buck is a guy named Paul Bako, who has a career 239/313/330 line over eight seasons with seven teams. In 2000 alone, Bako played for Houston, Florida and Atlanta.

The Royals’ MLB site cites Bako’s game-calling abilities and possession of “tricks of the trade.” That’s code speak for what the numbers above already tell us: light-hitting career backup.

Royals Connection: Bako hit a two run homer for Atlanta in the third and deciding game of the 2001 Division Series against the Houston Astros. The runner on base ahead of him? Former Royals shorstop Rey Sanchez!

Paul Phillips
269/269/403
OPS+ 77

Phillips has looked like a useful part in the Royals’ system for a while now. Injuries forced him out for all of the 2001, ‘02 and almost all of ’03 seasons, killing what had been steady progress, and he’s now spent the last two years waiting in Omaha for the September call-ups.

Phillips numbers at AAA dropped from 312/358/431 in 2004 to 268/317/401 last year, which is the wrong direction for a prospect who will turn 29 years old this year.

Royals New Promo Spots

I'm digging the new campaign for the Royals this year. You can view the spots by clicking here.

I'm guessing the latter two spots will get the bulk of the rotation, but I find the first spot hilarious. Instead of just pretending that nobody knows how bad the team has been recently, they have some fun with the possibility that 2003 lightning will strike again.

Here's hoping.

Chop Gets the Call

The Royals have invited a guy with the same nomenclature as one of my groomsmen.

This Chad Allen is a lifetime 269/321/389 hitter and on the wrong side of thirty. Nonetheless, I'll be rooting for him to make the team, if only so I can compare Allen's success to that of Heath Miller of the Steelers and talk some trash to my buddy.

Me and My Pal, Ronnie

Baseball Prospectus just posted their 2006 PECOTA projections, and I plan to peruse them post-haste.

In the meantime, I don't have anything important to say, so I am going to throw up this picture of me with Hall of Fame Defensive Back Ronnie Lott at the LA Auto Show.



As this photo was taken a day after Texas beat USC in the Rose Bowl, I decided not to ask him if he thought Pete Carroll had done a better job coaching with the Jets in '94 or currently with USC.

Why I'm Rooting for Pittsburgh in Two Weeks

King Kaufman, the resident sportswriter over at Salon.com often refers to a complex calculus of teams that he roots for. This idea has fascinated me for a while, as I am often watching national sports broadcasts (and postseason contests in particular) without one of my hard-wired favorites participating.

Rather than turn off the television, I find myself relying on my own twisted matrix of fandom in order to pick a side, so that I may enjoy the glory of victory or agony of defeat when the contest ends.

What follows is the now-dubbed H.G. Miller Fan Funnel. In essence, this chart puts into perspective how exactly I jam the various sports teams of the world into my rootin’ heart and thusly illuminates who gets the love when I turn on the tube.



The chart can be read from left to right and top to bottom in terms of importance. There are several easy factors in terms of who I root for, and they become more complicated as you move through the morass:

1. Home Teams Come First – The Royals, Chiefs and Jayhawks are the kings of this particular heap, for no other reason than I don’t know what life is like to NOT root for them.


2. Secondary Home Teams – The next level is populated by those teams I saw a lot of on TV. The Cubs and Bulls can thank WGN for my support. The Braves fit into this category. K-State football was a worthwhile endeavor during my formative years. My parents lived in Dallas for a few years and that Mark Cuban is a kook, so the Mavs also make the list.


3. Rivals' Opponents – One of the easiest emotions to muster when lazily flipping channels on TV is pure, unadulterated hate. Thus, I’ll throw my cheers towards whoever is playing the Broncos and Raiders, or whatever Division II school is giving Missouri a run for their money.


4. Relatives – If my team isn’t playing, I at least want the bloodlines to do well. Whether it’s a fellow conference school (except Mizzou), an assistance coach done well (say, Bill Cower) or a former graduate riding the pine (“Look! A clip of Wayne Simien during pre-game warm-ups with Shaq!”), I’ll feign interest to the point of an excited intake of breath when something goes right for “my team.”


5. Geographically Relevant – I live in Southern California, so if the Angels or Dodgers are doing well, I’ll applaud them. If I cared about hockey, I’d be all about the Kings, and I’ll accept a free pair of Clippers tickets when their offered (they aren’t that hard to come by).


6. The Cram Down – When there are no connections to be found, I generally default to whoever the underdog team happens to be. Whether it’s Alcorn State getting throttled by Miami (the one in Florida) in football, or the Tampa Bay Devil Rays mounting a late-inning comeback against the Red Sox, I’ll cheer them on. And, when it’s two mid-major schools playing college basketball at midnight on ESPN2, I’ll just flip a mental coin and put my interest into whoever has a more-pleasing jersey color, funnier mascot, or star player with a hopelessly-unpronounceable last name.

So, there you have it. I’m glad we cleared this all up.

REPEAT!?!?!?

Stumbled across a blurb in the Kansas City Star that mentioned my high school winning the Kansas 6A state championship. Now, the football team when I was in high school managed to win about one game a year, so I knew this had to be a serious typo.

Then, I found this article about the big win in the local paper and I find the phrase "beat Olathe East 24-7 to repeat as state champions."

Wait a second. Did that say "repeat?"

REPEAT!?!?!?

I remember celebrating one year when we tied (TIED!) a homecoming game against McPherson, a school about half the size of ours. Now, we're winning state championships?

Man, do I feel old.

My Job is EVIL!!!

In case you don't know, I work in advertising. However, I do realize that this is a callous and evil way to make a living. Nontheless, it pays the bills.

It also provides for fine moments in life like this story about a man who spread his mother's ashes during an Eagles football game. It seems like such a sweet gesture, and then he says this:

"I know that the last handful of ashes I had are laying on the field, and will never be taken away. She'll always be part of Lincoln Financial Field and of the Eagles."

Mr. Noteboom, Lincoln Financial thanks you for the PR.