Denny Matthews to Enter Hall of Fame

Fantastic news for Kansas City Royals fans today: Denny Matthews has been announced as the winner of the Ford C. Frick Award by the Baseball Hall of Fame.

From the Royals website:

Matthews has been with the Royals since the franchise's inception as an American League expansion team in 1969. He initially won the job after beating out more than 250 applicants for the No. 2 announcing position alongside veteran Bud Blattner.

I first started listening to Matthews calling Royals games when I was mowing the lawn as a kid. When I moved to Los Angeles seven years ago, I began listening to the Royals games over the internet and really discovered what a great play by play man he is.

Here are my two favorite Denny moments:

1.) During a Royals-Rangers game, the announcers were discussing Nolan Ryan and his accomplishments as a player. They talked about the strike outs and the no hitters and then Matthews finally chimed in that his favorite moment was when Robin Ventura charged the mound and Ryan put him in a headlock and basically showed him who the boss was.

Matthews doesn't sugar coat things. That's everybody's favorite memory of Nolan Ryan and he didn't pretend otherwise.

2.) During the magical run towards respectability in 2003, the Royals were about to lose to the Seattle Mariners in the second game since coming back from the All Star Break. Mike MacDougal had come in to save a 3-1 lead in the ninth inning, but walked a few batters, gave up a few singles and was facing Ichiro Suzuki with the bases loaded.

Ichiro drove the ball to right field and Matthews started yelling, "Come on wind! Come on wind!"

It was a grand slam and the Royals lost the game.

Matthews is most often criticized for not showing enough emotion during a game. To me, this is his greatest quality. Routine grounders are treated like routine grounders. Likewise with lazy fly balls and singles over the second base bag.

When it really counts, Denny's voice will rise, and he will shout at the wind to help his team win, just like a great flagship announcer should.

Congratulations, Denny. You belong in Cooperstown.

"Who are These Guys?" 2007 - Starting Pitchers

Previous Installments: C - 1B/DH - 2B/SS - 3B - OF

The Kansas City Royals have done more than just remodel the pitching staff in the last year. General Manager Dayton Moore has basically demolished the whole thing and started over with his own guys.

Three of the top five starting pitchers on the current depth chart weren’t with the team coming out of camp last year and the other two spent significant time in the minor leagues.

Like with the hitters, the player’s name will link to their career stats page, and I will list the 2006 won-loss record, ERA, WHIP and ERA+ for each.

Gil Meche
11-8/4.48/1.43
ERA+ 97

Meche is going to make a lot of money over the next five years and everybody is going to make fun of the Royals for it.

His career comparables through age 27 include guys like Jason Marquis, Chris Carpenter and Jason Schmidt – sort of a mixed bag of results.

He did see a significant spike in his strikeout rate last season, and Lord knows the Royals could use a few more pitchers who know how to miss bats.

Year K/9
2003 6.28
2004 6.98
2005 5.21
2006 7.52

Meche was on his way to becoming a superstar before injuries derailed him in the early part of the century. Since coming back to the big leagues in 2003, he has been consistently almost average.

That kind of performance may be worth $11 million a year in baseball today.

Odalis Perez
6-8/6.20/1.58
ERA+ 76

In 2002, the Atlanta Braves included Perez in a trade with the Dodgers in order to get Gary Sheffield so they could win another division title.

Perez responded by putting up ERA+ of 126, 87 and 127 over the next three years. The Dodgers then signed him to a $24 million contract and he proceeded to stink up the joint, act all disgruntled and get himself traded to the Royals.

Take that, Odalis.

The Royals are only on the hook for about $5 million of Perez’s remaining contract, and he showed signs of life pitching for the team in the second half of last season.

Luke Hudson
7-6/5.12/1.44
ERA+ 95

After a middling career bouncing between the minors and the majors with the Colorado and Cincinnati organizations, Hudson joined the Royals in Spring Training last year and left Arizona with a big league job.

After putting up an 8.74 ERA in the first month of the season, he was sent down to Omaha. I’m guessing he dined on some of the finest steaks America has to offer for the next two months. I’m not really sure.

He did acquit himself nicely when returning to the Royals at the end of June, going 7-3 with a 4.67 ERA to finish out the season.

Jorge de la Rosa
5-6/6.49/1.71
ERA+ 72

De la Rosa was another one of Dayton Moore’s mid season pickups. I think you can learn a lot about a player by looking at who he was traded for in his career.

For example, in a three day period near the end of 2003, Jorge was one in a group of players exchanged by the Red Sox to get Curt Schilling and then the Diamondbacks to get Richie Sexon.

By July 25, 2006, the Royals were able to get him straight up for Tony Graffanino.

He does have a very pretty name, though.

Zach Greinke
1-0/4.26/1.58
ERA+ 114

Excuse me for breaking out the Gnarls Barkley...

“Maybe I’m cra-zay... maybe I’m cra-zay...”

Greinke was a coveted prospect coming out of high school and did well in his first full season of minor league ball. At 20, he cracked the Royals starting rotation and was named the team’s pitcher of the year in 2004.

2005 was a down year and then he left spring training before last season to attend to personal issues. Those personal issues are still a mystery to most, but the Royals seem to have handled the situation well, as Zach is back in camp this year, throwing easy and apparently having a good time.

Mental make up is a hard thing to measure, but Greinke was pegged with Cy Young potential early in his career. If he can stay focused enough to take the mound every fifth day, the Royals may still have a solid, above average starter in the quirky kid from Florida.

"Who are These Guys?" 2007 - Outfield

Previous Installments: C - 1B/DH - 2B/SS - 3B

How old can an outfield be? The San Francisco Giants trotted out a creaky-kneed trio aged 39, 41 and 41 last season and lost 85 games.

This year, the Kansas City Royals might feature a 39 year old veteran roaming the grass at Kauffman Stadium along side a 25 year old converted third baseman.

A couple of twenty-something speedsters could provide great defense one day, while men who will never get closer to a Gold Glove than Mark Grudzielanek’s locker could be chasing down doubles the next.

Playing time at first and third base will come at a premium this season, with the gentlemen below feeling the squeeze.

David DeJesus
295/364/446
OPS+ 103

Generally speaking, baseball players improve over their first few years in the league, peak at age 27 and slowly decline after that.

Here is how DeJesus has tracked since becoming a full time player in 2004.

Year Age Games AVG OBP SLG
2004 24  96    287 360 402
2005 25  122   293 359 445
2006 26  119   295 364 446

Last March, he signed an extension through his age 30 season in 2010 for an average of $2.76 million per year. If he can manage to stay injury free and make the leap in production many expect this season, the Royals will have made a very good deal.

Assuming Buddy Bell doesn’t take any blows to the head this Spring, David will be leading off for the Royals on April 2nd. He’s had some pop in the one hole, hitting six home runs to lead off a game in his career.

Last year, DeJesus was moved to left field when Joey Gathright came over from the Devil Rays.

According the research done by John Walsh at The Hardball Times, DeJesus was one of the best defensive outfielders in both center and left field in 2006.

Emil Brown
287/358/457
OPS+ 104

Emil Brown was not one of the better defensive outfielders in 2006 or any year for that matter.

However, he has managed to carve out a nice career for himself after toiling away in the minors for many years.

If Mark Teahen gets moved to the outfield to make room for third base prospect Alex Gordon, then Brown could find himself in the thick of a mean battle for the remaining corner outfield spot.

Reggie Sanders
246/304/425
OPS+ 81

The other highly-paid option to man right field, Sanders has always been an above average hitter, and a bit of a nomad.

Since leaving Cincinnati in 1998, he has never signed more than a one or two year deal with any team.

While Sanders has managed to put up highly productive seasons despite being on the wrong side of the age curve, the following trend is of concern:

Age Games
34  140
35  130
36  135
37   93
38   88

39 year olds who aren’t pitchers don’t have much history contributing at the major league level.

A highly comparable player to Sanders is Ron Gant (who the Royals could have had once).

Gant also bounced around at the end of his career, put up his last useful season at 37 and saw injuries end his career.

Joey Gathright
262/332/328
OPS+ 68

Yes, the batting line is atrocious, but he is fast, or so I’m told whenever I see his name mentioned in any story ever written about him.

Gathwright hit for average and got on base at a respectable clip in the minors (315/391/360 in five seasons), but has yet to see that translate in the bigs. He will never be a power hitter, but if he can start getting on base and stealing at a 75% clip, he will be a valuable fourth outfielder.

Shane Costa
274/304/405
OPS+ 77

Costa beat out Aaron Guiel for the fourth outfielder spot out of spring training last year, and I was none to happy about it.

Costa is another player who put up good but not great numbers in the minors. After being sent down last season, he put up his best line yet going 342/398/593 in 52 games with Omaha, bouncing back and forth with the big club all year.

He’s a Cal State Fullerton Titan, so my wife likes him; though she hates baseball, so I don’t think Shane is gleaning much positive karma from his time in southern California.

Pitcher previews next week.

"Who are These Guys?" 2007 - 3B

Previous Installments: C - 1B/DH - 2B/SS

A quick look at all of the Hall of Famers who have played for the Kansas City Royals will leave you with two lingering thoughts:

1.) Orlando Cepeda and Harmon Killebrew played for the Royals? Really?

2.) Thank God for George Brett.

With a breakout performer and a sure-fire prospect competing for a spot on the hot corner, this may be the most interesting position battle since Ken Harvey and Calvin Pickering went head-to-head over the buffet table in 2005.

Mark Teahen
290/357/517
OPS+ 117

Perhaps the last great thing Allard Baird did as general manager of the Kansas City Royals was send Mark Teahen down to Omaha after his horrid start to the 2006 season.

Team AVG  OBP  SLG
KC   195  241  351
OMA  380  500  658
KC   313  384  557

Faced with fading away or fighting back, Teahen did the latter. He got angry at our little white friends with the red stitching and began thumping whenever one came across the plate.

Dayton Moore brought Teahen back up to the big league team to see if his hot streak would hold, and it did until a labrum tear ended his season in early September.

What remains to be seen is how the shoulder surgery will affect Teahen’s ability to progress this season. Mark is already a candidate to decline – his minor league stats show a lot of patience, but not as much power.

With a log jam in the outfield and golden boy Alex Gordon standing on third base in the minors, Teahen cannot afford to have another April like last year.

Alex Gordon
325/427/588 (AA)

Ahh, the golden child.

Gordon has pretty much raked the ball as far back as the stats go.

Check out his splits while at Wichita last year and you’ll see that the only time he didn’t really produce was in twelve at bats as a first baseman. (Note to the Royals, Alex Gordon is NOT a first baseman)

Most observers assume that Gordon will be the starting third baseman coming out of Spring Training, forcing Mark Teahen to the outfield.

Ideally, the two players will push each other to greatness and force the Royals to trade away some of the excess baggage in the outfield.

Realistically, the 23 year old Gordon will have a few struggles against his first taste of MLB quality competition. How few are up for debate.

        2007 Projections
        AVG OBP SLG OPS AB
PECOTA  282 364 511 875 541
ZIPS    275 361 473 834 491
CHONE   273 353 465 818 485

A 21 year old George Brett put up a 282/312/363 line in 457 at bats in his first major league season and finished second in the MVP voting at age 23.

Can the chosen one keep up?

"Who are These Guys?" 2007 - 2B/SS

Previous Installments: C / 1B/DH

The Kansas City Royals have had five different leaders in games played at second base in the last five years, and only one guy manning the other side of the bag (forgive me if I pretend the Neifi Perez year never happened.).

Yes, it has been a long time since Frank White was racking up Gold Gloves in the powder blue, but last year saw the Royals get a nice trophy and nearly-adequate production from their second sacker.

Angel Berroa continued to suck wind, but we'll get to him in a second.


Mark Grudzielanek
297/331/409
OPS+ 85

If Grudzielanek doesn’t put up a 295/330/400 line with solid defense this year, then something has probably gone horribly wrong with the space/time continuum and we’ll all have bigger things to worry about than baseball.

A contact hitter, Grudzie doesn’t walk much, strike out much or really do much of anything except put the ball in play.

See these nifty charts from Fan Graphs, if you want the proof.

With a good defensive reputation, the Royals had Grudzielanek move over to shortstop at the end of four games last year. He hasn’t played the position regularly since 2000, but I wonder if he won’t see a little more time over there this season if Angel Berroa can’t get his act together.

Angel Berroa
234/259/333
OPS+ 48

Excuse me for a minute while I shake my head and sigh. Those ugly numbers you see were produced over 500 plate appearances in 132 games last year.

By the end of the season, the Royals were regularly pinch-hitting for Berroa at the end of close games, which was a good idea because his lifetime OPS in the ninth inning is .504. (He hits like Babe Ruth in extra innings, but that is more a product of small sample size than actual clutch talent)

The team is on the hook for another $8.5 million, but it appears Dayton Moore has the flexibility to consider those sunk costs if Berroa doesn’t show improvement early in the season.

Estaban German
326/422/459
OPS+ 122

Aside from getting hit in the face by what most observers considered a routine fly ball, German exceeded every reasonable expectation for the Royals last season.

With a strong history of getting on base in the minors, German led the team with a .422 OBP in 2006.

At 28, German is too old to be considered a prospect anymore, and one would guess that his production will slip after a career year, but he appears to be a solid back up for Grudzilanek.

In my perfect world, German would be moved to the other side of the bag and take over for Angel Berroa at short stop, providing patience and power and probably a few more errors. General Manager Dayton Moore has hinted at this possibility in recent radio interviews.

"Who are These Guys?" 2007 - 1B/DH

As the march toward daylight savings time continues, we continue our look at the players who will be competing for spots on the Kansas City Royals opening day roster.

Previous profiles: Catchers

Since 2003, the likes of Ken Harvey, Matt Stairs and Doug Mientkiewicz have all spent time chasing down Angel Berroa's errant throws and subbing for Mike Sweeney. Who will be the lucky contenders for that role this year?

Mike Sweeney
258/349/438
OPS+ 97

Any discussion about the Royals 1B/DH situation begins and ends with Mike Sweeney.

When healthy, he has easily been the most productive hitter on the team over the last eight years. Of course, even the casual observer can tell you that Sweeney has hardly been healthy since he became the highest-paid player in team history.

Just to recap: While Johnny Damon, Jermaine Dye and Carlos Beltran found riches elsewhere, Sweeney signed what many agreed was a good deal for the Royals in 2002.

His numbers since the signing:

Year  Games  OPS+
2003  108    115
2004  106    123
2005  122    127
2006   60     97

Sweeney will be 33 this season. His offensive numbers should rebound from last year, but he is definitely entering the decline phase of his career. He will be the designated hitter whenever his back is up to it; when it isn’t, the remaining names on this list will be vying for his time in the lineup.

Ryan Shealy
277/333/450
OPS+ 95

Shealy came to the Royals last year as part of a mid-season trade that sent pitchers Jeremy Affeldt and Denny Bautista to Colorado to breathe the mountain air and search for their lost potential.

A strong performer in the Rockies farm system, Shealy was stuck waiting for Todd Helton to catch Mike Sweeney’s back virus so he could have a shot at playing time in the major leagues.

After a short adjustment period, Shealy really started raking for the Royals in the final months of the season.

Dates    AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS
8/01–15  255  328  309   637
8/15-31  339  371  525   896
9/01-15  333  393  686 1.079
9/15-24  107  194  143   337

His last week was marred by illness and he was benched permanently with a case of hives to end the season.

Assuming the mystery hives don't come back with a vengeance, Shealy should have a lock on the first base job coming out of spring training.

Ross Gload
327/354/462
OPS+ 107

Another off season pick up for the Royals, Gload gives the franchise four of the top-eight finishers for Rookie of the Year voting in 2004.

I haven’t decided yet whether this is a good or a bad thing.

In the minors, Gload has always hit for average and power. In two full seasons in the major leagues, he lost a little power, but still managed to keep his batting average up.

As a role-player backing up first base and the outfield, there is really nothing wrong with Gload. However...

    Gload    Player X
Age Lev OPS  Lev    OPS
19    N/A    RK     943
20    N/A    A      878
21  A   712  A/AA   830
22  A   865  AA     901
23  A   793  AA/AAA 953
24  AA  827  AAA    838
25  AAA 845
26  AAA 852
27  AAA 873
28  MLB 854
29  AAA 1073
30  MLB 816

Wow! Who’s that wonderful Player X that showed he could handle professional baseball at such a scorching pace? I sure wish my team would give him a shot at a big league job!

Justin Huber
200/273/300
OPS+ 45

By age 22, Justin Huber looked like he was capable of taking Mike Piazza’s place as the best-hitting catcher in all of baseball. (He's Player X, by the way.)

A trade to the Royals, a knee injury and two years later, Huber has become another player lost in the logjam at 1B/DH.

If he can bounce back from a disappointing season with Omaha last year, then the Aussie may become a valuable trading chip later in the season.

As it stands now, he is probably going to be manning first base in Omaha come April. The team has moved Huber from catcher to first base to occasional stints in the outfield since acquiring him in 2004. Most likely, he’ll be called up ahead of Billy Butler in order to save some time on that young man’s service clock.

"Who are These Guys?" 2007 - Catchers

Geeks like me who routinely check in with the home team's website can tell you that we are only 3 days, 19 hours and 4 minutes away from the opening of spring training.

There are twenty new faces on the Kansas City Royals forty man roster since the last time pitchers and catchers were asked to report, so I will now continue with one of the grandest traditions of this blog: "Who are These Guys?" 2007!

It's my way of introducing you to the men who will be vying for playing time under the Arizona sun.

Each player name will link to his stats from baseball-reference.com, followed by his 2006 numbers (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging average and OPS+).

Let's start with the men behind the dish.

John Buck
245/306/396
OPS+ 76

Not long ago (2004), Buck finished tied for 8th place in rookie of the year voting, behind fellow teammates David DeJesus (6th) and Zack Greinke (4th). No doubt, his single vote was probably cast by Jeffrey Flannigan.

Buck’s OPS by Year:

2004  704
2005  676
2006  702

Buck’s OPS by Month:

Apr/Mar  553 
May      683 
June     780 
July     552 
August   680 
Sept/Oct 864

That June number is helped by his .993 OPS in June last year.

Buck’s MO is to start off slow and then figure things out. Unfortunately, aside from the aforementioned June and August of 2004, he has only posted an OPS over .800 in the month of September.

If I were Buddy Bell, I’d hire several “players” to stand around Buck at all times, wearing thermals, complaining about how cold it’s getting and talking about their fantasy football drafts non-stop.

Jason LaRue
194/317/346
OPS+ 65

LaRue was making steady progress as an offensive threat over the course of his career...

OPS+ by year:

1999  77
2000  74
2001  82
2002  85
2003  92
2004 103
2005 105
2006  65

... until last year, when pre-season knee surgery kept him out of the opening day lineup and rendered him relatively ineffective.

That’s one scary hole his productivity fell into, but there is hope for a rebound this year.

Here are some of LaRue’s numbers from the last three seasons, courtesy of The Hardball Times:

AVG  OBP  SLG  LD%   GB%   BA/BIP
251  334  431  19.7  42.3  .313
260  355  452  22.5  41.6  .325
194  317  346  20.0  43.6  .220

For reference, that's line drive (LD%) and ground ball percentages (GB%), as well as batting average on balls in play (BA/BIP).

A quick glance at those numbers shows that one of these things is not like the others.

Despite the knee surgery zapping his power, LaRue still hit line drives with the same consistency as previous years. Even a terrible player will have their BA/BIP regress to the mean (the NL average BA/BIP was .301 in ’06), and LaRue was not a terrible player before his knee injury, which could mean a nice bounce back for the man slated to back up Buck.

Paul Phillips
277/284/369
OPS+ 63

In seven minor league seasons, Phillips has put up a marginal 280/326/392 line in 532 games. Seeing action at the major league level almost exclusively during the September call-up period, he has hit 270/279/380 in 50 games.

After missing two entire seasons to injury, Phillips has done well to find himself a home in Omaha and will probably continue to work with the pitchers who aren’t quite ready for prime time yet.

I'll be back with a look at the tall, slow guys standing by first base tomorrow.

Who's on Third? A look at the '07 Royals lineup

Now that Dayton Moore has satisfied fan lust for more minor-league depth at shortstop by signing Alex Gonzalez, the Kansas City Royals offensive unit is pretty much set.

One could reasonably expect the following players to take the field on April 2nd, 2007:

DeJesus  CF
Grudz    2B
Teahen   3B
Sweeney  DH
Shealy   1B
Brown    LF
Sanders  RF
Berroa   SS
Buck     C

By taking the average on-base and slugging percentages from two of the better freely-available projection systems on the net (ZIPS and CHONE) and plugging them into David Pinto’s very cool lineup analysis tool, we find that this lineup should produce about 4.70 runs a game.

More info on these calculations can be found through Pinto’s site.

Last year, the Royals scored 4.67 runs a game, so the above projection seems reasonable given the modest offensive activity this offseason.

This isn’t to say that Buddy Bell doesn’t have options.

Simply sitting Angel Berroa and plugging Esteban German in at shortstop would boost the production to 4.91 runs a game.

Also, as has been discussed before, there are reinforcements coming from the minors.

If Alex Gordon makes his case this spring and Mark Teahen moves to the outfield, pushing Reggie Sanders to the bench, then the lineup puts up 5.03 runs a game.

In an ideal world, the Royals will put their best foot forward with the following fellows:

Player   Pos  Age
Gordon   3B   23
Sweeney  DH   33
Teahen   LF   25
Gload    RF   31
Shealy   1B   27
DeJesus  CF   27
German   SS   29
Buck     C    26
Grudz    2B   37

This lineup should score 5.11 runs a game.

So, what’s the big difference between 5.11 and 4.70 runs a game?

Pitcher projections are much less accurate, so let’s take a leap of faith and assume that Moore’s many pitching moves this off season have given the Royals staff a chance at mediocrity.

Rather than giving up a league-leading 5.99 runs a game like last year, let’s say the staff regresses to the mean and only allows five runs a game. (The American League average in 2006 was 4.87, so this shouldn’t be too much to ask.)

Now, using the pythagorean method to predict a final record, here is how the team would net out over the course of the season:

R/G   RS   RA   W   L
4.70  762  810  76  86
4.91  796  810  80  82
5.03  814  810  81  81
5.11  827  810  83  79

Unfortunately, even a team that is capable of winning 83 games needs a lot of luck, some shrewd moves during the season and the National League West as it’s home to have a chance at the playoffs.

However, even sniffing .500 would be a major improvement for the Kansas City Royals in 2007. This team is capable of putting a legitimate major league batting order together, featuring only a few players past their prime, and that hasn’t been the case for quite a few years.

Royals Make Off-Season's Most Insignificant Trade

The Royals have traded Jeff Keppinger, an infielder that most people have never heard of, to the Cincinnati Reds for a pitcher nobody has ever heard of.

With Mark Grudzielanek locked in as the starting second basemen and Esteban German seemingly able to field grounders without using his face, Keppinger had become a superfluous asset for the team.

Russell Haltiwanger is the prize for GM Dayton Moore. Yet another pitcher added to the stockpile, Rusty will probably be hanging out in Wilmington to start the season, maybe Wichita if he really impresses.

Aside from having a last name with the word “wanger” in it, here’s a quick run down on what else Haltiwanger brings to the organization.

Here are his rate stats since college:

Year Team     Level Age  IP    ERA   H9    HR9   BB9    K9    WHIP
2004 Newberry NCAA  20   62.1  6.06  9.71  0.14  4.20   8.41  1.55
2005 Newberry NCAA  21   52    3.29  8.83  0.00  4.33  10.21  1.46
2006 Dayton   A     22   82.1  4.15  7.87  1.09  4.92   8.53  1.42
2006 Sarasota A+    22    4    2.25  2.25  2.25  9.00   4.50  1.25

For the uninitiated, the “9” stats are hits, home runs, walks and strikeouts per nine innings pitched.

The two best things about Haltiwanger are his age and his ability to strike out almost a batter an inning. He was able to keep his ERA respectable when moving from college to the pros last year and according to this profile from May, his goal is to some day pitch for the Cincinnati Reds.

I guess he'll have to give up on that dream now.

One final tidbit. Check out this interesting split from his time pitching for Single-A Dayton in ought-six:

        IP    OPS   WHIP  W/9   K/9   HR/9
None on 39.7  .729  1.71  7.03  8.39  1.36
Men on  42.7  .650  1.08  2.53  8.44  0.84

With men on base, he walked fewer batters, gave up fewer home runs and clamped down on the overall offensive output of his competition.

It looks like Rusty might be a little clutch.

The Royals Unoffensive Off Season

Since the crickets are chirping on Royals coverage while the Chiefs make their “miracle” run into the NFL playoffs, let’s take a moment to examine what General Manager Dayton Moore has done with the offense this off season.

Given that the team finished near the bottom of the league in runs scored last year, you’d think Moore would be stockpiling bats in the same manner he’s been picking up arms.

However, the only additions so far have been 1B/DH Ross Gload and Catcher Jason LaRue.

Of course, Moore did spruce up the lineup a bit during the season, and a look at the OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging average) month-by-month does show some modest improvement.

Apr 681
May 732
Jun 743
Jul 760
Aug 764
Sep 762

Unfortunately, their best month was barely average.

David Cohen over at The Good Phight has posted a list of the stats for each lineup position on every team and here is how the Royals stacked up in 2006:

Rank   Pos   AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS
47      5   .293  .365  .498  .862
122     3   .280  .355  .425  .779
126     1   .289  .351  .423  .775
128     6   .273  .338  .437  .775
145     2   .290  .342  .416  .758
152     4   .253  .319  .436  .755
218     7   .262  .312  .375  .687
240     9   .258  .309  .346  .655
251     8   .236  .289  .327  .616

The overall OPS in 2006 was .765. That means that over half of the Royals lineup was worse than league average, and in the case of the #8 spot, barely better than the pitchers hit in the National League.

Ross Gload and Jason LaRue? Really?

Okay, let’s not panic just yet.

Here is a look at some 2007 projections using Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections:

Name    P    AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS
Shealy  1b  .288  .349  .479  .828
Teahen  3b  .277  .349  .461  .810
Sweeney dh  .275  .338  .470  .808
DeJesus cf  .287  .355  .431  .786
Brown   lf  .281  .343  .438  .781
Sanders rf  .252  .312  .438  .750
Buck    c   .251  .307  .432  .739
Grudz   2b  .288  .327  .382  .709
Berroa  ss  .252  .288  .365  .653

BENCH
Gload   dh  .302  .350  .467  .817
German  2b  .290  .359  .386  .745
LaRue   c   .234  .331  .411  .742
Gthrght cf  .269  .335  .330  .665

MINORS
Gordon  3b  .275  .361  .473  .834
Huber   1b  .272  .337  .456  .793
Butler  lf  .292  .339  .447  .786

First of all, simply keeping Sweeney healthy and having Mark Teahen not turn into a pumpkin will help the Royals offense tremendously next season.

Hopefully, having Gil Meche make as much money as he does will stave off the pressure that seems to land on Sweeney’s bad back every season.

The jury is still out on Joey Gathwright, but Ryan Shealy looked like a good addition in the second half last year, and Szymborski’s system seems to like Gload’s potential.

However, the biggest reason for Moore’s focus on the pitching staff is that there is real promise coming from the minor leagues.

Alex Gordon, Justin Huber and Billy Butler all project to hit better in the big leagues than almost the entire 2006 lineup.

With all of that potential piling up at triple-A and Emil Brown and Reggie Sanders both on the wrong side of the age curve, I imagine there may be a few more deals before pitchers and catchers report.

Royals Continue to Pick Up Pitchers

Originally Posted to OTB Sports.

The Royals added veteran set-up man David Riske to their bullpen today.

From the Kansas City Star:

Riske, 30, has made a name for himself as one of the better setup men in baseball. He is 18-14 with a 3.59 ERA in 328 appearances in a seven-year career with Cleveland, Boston, and the White Sox.

...

Riske appeared in a total of 140 games in 2003 and 2004, and since has seen his strikeout totals diminish. He struck out 76 batters in a combined 116 2/3 innings the last two seasons.

This makes six pitchers General Manager Dayton Moore has signed this off season who will likely make the opening day roster, completely overhauling what was the worst pitching staff in 2006, a season in which the Royals allowed seventy-two more runs than the second-worst team in the majors.

The Royals also signed Zach Day to a minor-league contract. Day fell of a cliff the last two seasons after showing promise early in his career, though part of that may have been due to a shoulder problem.

Day is 28 and missed the last half of 2006 after undergoing surgery to repair a partially torn rotator cuff. He went 2-5 with a 6.75 ERA in eight starts for Washington and Colorado and made $600,000. He is 21-27 with a 4.66 ERA in his career. His 2.25-to-1 ground-ball-to-fly-ball ratio is baseball’s seventh highest since 2002.

Groundball pitchers tend to do well when they have good defenders playing behind them. Mark Grudzielanek may have won the Gold Glove last year, but Angel Berroa did not, so we'll have to wait and see if this proves to be a steal for the Royals.

Of course, if Day's shoulder is healed, then it certainly can't hurt to have another pitcher with actual major-league experience on the team.

Breaking down Sisco for Gload

So, all that stuff I said about Sisco returning to form. Yeah, um, forget about that.

Since it's getting to be old news already, I'll just throw my two cents in here.

First, a look at the pertinent stats:

Andy Sisco
Year Games ERA+
2005  67   139
2006  65    68

Ross Gload
Year Games OPS+
2004 110   115
2006  77   107

Gload put up a 364/416/657 line at AAA in '05.

Oh, and then there's this: Sisco is going to be 24 years old in 2007, whereas our boy Ross will be 31.

So, the Royals trade a young power pitcher with proven upside (albeit with a bit of an attitude problem) for a position player who has proven to be slightly above average playing the field at 1B/OF, where the team is already overloaded.

Not to bead a dead horse, but the Royals already HAD this guy:

Aaron Guiel
Year Games OPS+
2005 33    114
2006 63    102

The general consensus on the web seems to be that GM Dayton Moore is sending a message by shuttling off underachievers like Runelvys and Sisco, and generally I agree with the philosophy. However, Ross Gload, while of comparative value to Sisco from a numbers standpoint, is older and unnecessary.

I'm trying to hold off on judging the off season activity until we get closer to Spring Training, as it looks like Moore has no intentions of slowing down.

For all we know, Reggie Sanders, Emil Brown and Justin Huber will all be on other teams by the time pitchers and catchers report to the desert. However, this trade certainly looks like a bad one to me at the moment.

With Billy Butler, Alex Gordon and Justin Huber all performing well in the minors, I have to believe the focus should be on stockpiling as many live arms as possible, rather than sending them to rival teams.

The Pitching Picture

Wow. Fifty-five mil for Gil?

I don’t know if Big Money Meche is going to lead us to the promised land in this year, or the next, but I do feel like the offense will continue to improve and any, ANY move towards mediocrity by the pitching staff will be a step in the right direction.

Here’s a quick look at where we were and where we might be going.

Starters

2006           2007
Player   ERA+  Player   *ERA+
Hudson   95    Greinke  101
DeLaRosa 93    Ban'ster 101
Elarton  91    Meche    97
O. Perez 86    Hudson   93
Redman   85    O. Perez 86
Elvys    75    DeLaRosa 74

Relievers

2006          2007
Player  ERA+  Player  *ERA+
Peralta 110   W’meyer 110
Dessens 108   Peralta 110
Gobble  94    Nelson  93
Burgos  88    Bale    92
Sisco   68    Ray     92

*Please note: The ’07 ERA+ number is simply the player’s 2006 ERA+ divided by their career ERA+. ERA+ is a quick-read stat that compares a pitcher’s ERA to the league average. Above 100 is good, below 100 is bad.

My projection is not grounded in any proven sabermetric theory, just something I could do quickly while whiling away the hours at work.

Of course, the staff is not set in stone, and there will be a variety of other pitchers who grace the mound at Kaufman stadium next year, most notably Octavio Dotel, who sports a career ERA+ of 121 from his pre-injury days.

If someone like Andy Sisco can find his form again, or Rule 5 pickup Joakim Soria can build on his stellar showing in winter ball (I make the bold prediction that he will NOT throw a perfect game for the Royals in 2007), then there really is hope for a shot at winning some of the closer games next year.

Please... say it again, Jeanne

Congrats to the Cards for winning the World Series. Now that the curse of Donnie Dek has been avenged, I am looking forward to the Royals getting into the post season and kicking ass next year.

On another note, it's beginning to get uncomfortable how many times Jeanne Zelasko keeps asking the owners and players to say "World Champion St. Louis Cardinals." She keeps repeating the phrase, then asking whoever she is interviewing to repeat it, then they ignore her and thank their teammates and the fans.

Ahh, the value of TV personalities.

Finishing Off the Season

Now that the team has “achieved” the 100 loss plateau, I suppose it’s time to recollect on the season.

I will be getting married in a week, so I wish to purge myself of these trifling, depressing thoughts before a few weeks in Tahiti with my new wife set my mind straight and get me ready for next year.

To start with: a few tables for you.

Run
Diff G W L W%
1 38 14 24 36.8%
2 34 17 17 50.0%
3 19 6 13 31.6%
4 18 8 10 44.4%
5 16 6 10 37.5%
6 11 5 6 45.5%
7 8 0 8  0.0%
11 5 0 5  0.0%
8 4 2 2 50.0%
10 3 1 2 33.3%
13 2 0 2  0.0%
9 1 0 1  0.0%

This is the Royals’ record depending on the difference in final score. As you can see the team has played more one-run games than any other kind and has only managed to win 36.8% of the time.

Don’t read too much into this. If they just flipped a coin at the start of each game to determine a winner in the close contests, then our boys would have gone 19-19 and still been 35 games under .500 at this point in the season.

What I find most interesting is that the team has played in more games decided by 11 runs than eight. They’ve been blown out by seven eight times and crushed by THIRTEEN twice!

Imagine where we’d be if the team didn’t at least put up a fight in those two, four and six run contests?

Now… where to lay the blame?

This next chart is taken from Baseball Prospectus’s VORP numbers, short for Value Over Replacement Player. This number is designed to give you an idea of how many runs a player is worth above or below the average AAA journeyman who may or may not be playing first base for the Yankees tonight.

Player   PA   AVG   OBP   SLG   VORP   VORP/PA
German   313  326   420   455   25.1   .080
Teahen   439  290   357   517   29.3   .067
DeJesus  533  292   362   433   24.0   .038
E. Brown 583  287   358   455   28.0   .036
Grudz    586  297   331   409   19.2   .033
Stairs   262  261   352   429    6.3   .024
Guiel     59  220   339   460    1.3   .022
Mient    361  283   359   411    7.0   .019
Shealy   210  280   338   451    3.7   .018
Graffy   250  268   346   409    3.6   .014
Sweeney  242  240   339   409    2.6   .011
Costa    251  271   301   403    1.0   .000
Buck     403  244   306   397   -8.0  -.002
Sanders  358  246   304   425   -2.5  -.007
Gathrght 245  249   319   315   -4.7  -.019
Berroa   488  235   260   337  -15.6  -.032
Bako     167  209   261   229  -13.3  -.080

Using my mad math skills, I have taken the VORP of each player with more than 100 plate appearances and divided it by the number of PAs to see who produces the most value per time at the dish.

(Okay, so I cheated and kept Guiel in there just because he was my favorite player and I want the front office of the team, who I KNOW read this, to see what value they just dumped for nothing.)

What’s encouraging is to see a few of the younger guys at the top of the list. Teahen and DeJesus are going to be the cornerstones of a very good offense over the next couple of years. It is obvious that German has been woefully underused, but who knows, maybe he would have lost some effectiveness from the wear and tear of playing everyday.

There is, of course, an obvious sink-hole at catcher, but Buck has a mean-looking goatee and since he’s got the balls to take on Elvys in a fight, I say his gumption is worth the eight runs he’s given to the enemy this year.

And then there’s Berroa. Ahh, Angel. You’re going to make some mad cash in the coming seasons and my hope is that you’ll be doing so while striking out in picturesque Coors Field or a nice, homey place like Wrigley. If Dayton Moore isn’t prepared to eat your salary (and I mean ALL of it) this off season in order to trade you for some kind return value, then I hope he at least makes you go to Mike Sweeney’s back doctor for some off-season training advice.

I won’t show you the pitching numbers. I think we all know how that story goes.

Maybe Roger Clemens will take $12 Million from us next year to pitch in the games we play against the Rangers.

Maybe Zachary has his head on straight, and maybe Hochever is worth the year out of organized ball.

Maybe Elvys can keep the ball down, and maybe Joe Nelson is for real.

Maybe I’ll be so happy in Tahiti that I never come back and start learning the rules of soccer or cricket or whatever it is they play out there, and I find a new team to obsess over.

Nah… if moving to LA hasn’t killed the Royals fan in me (and Lord knows the losses haven’t), then I guess I’ll always be thinking about the maybe.

Have a good off-season, everybody.

Adam Bernero - My New Hero?

So, if you follow the Royals (and, if you’ve found this blog, then you probably do), you are probably asking yourself something along the lines of “Who in the hell is Adam Bernero?”

Maybe you saw something like this.

Year  IP    ERA
2000  34.3  4.19
2001  12.3  7.30 
2002 101.7  6.20
2003 133.3  5.87
2004  32.3  5.57
2005  47.0  6.51

Then, you would have rightfully thought, “Man, Adam Benero sucks!”

Of course, then you would have gone back to what brought you here in the first place:

Date IP  H ER BB K  
8/16 6.0 5 0  0  6
8/11 5.2 7 1  0  5

Well, then… now you don’t know what to think. Does he suck, or is he the kind of K-an-inning guy that the Royals so desperately need in their starting rotation?

Here are his career minor league stats, along with his splits from this year.

In parts of six seasons in the minors, Bernero has given up about a hit an inning, while posting a k/9 of 7.13, which is above average, but not great.

In 80 innings with Omaha this year, his numbers look like this:

IP   H  BB K  WHIP K/9  ERA
79.3 63 23 47 1.08 5.33 2.84

Again, nice, but not fantastic. Especially for a guy who’s a few years older than most of the competition.

My guess is that Adam will have one of those patented eight-run innings that all Royal pitchers are contractually obligated to have, and his ERA will end up in the 4-5 range… giving us one more guy who “might” be a solid fourth starter next year.

I do hear that Grienke is finally pitching well, so hip-hip-hooray for that.

What is Dayton Doing?

As today's trading deadline nears, I thought I might take a quick look at Dayton Moore's first real action since he sent J.P. Howell to Tampa Bay for Joey Gathwright.

To the uneducated observer, the motivation for Moore's moves may be hard to pin down, but I'm guessing that after he took over as general manager, he did a google search on the Royals farm system and found a page that looked like THIS.

What that list shows is that the best pitcher the Royals have drafted over the last ten years is probably David DeJesus, whose 7 outfield assists this year show the kind of velocity and accuracy that Jeremy Affeldt can only muster when he isn't allowed to pitch more than one inning at a time.

And so, Moore has jettisoned a couple of middling veterans (Tony G and Everyday Elmer) and one of our most oft-injured pseudo-superstars (Mac the Ninth) for the following collection of live arms:

Odalis Perez - 126, 127 ERA+ in '02 and '04. Needed out of LA in a bad way.
Blake Johnson - 3.33 ERA in A ball last year. 4.92 this year.
Julio Pimentel - Over a K an inning in A ball this year.
Jorge de la Rosa - A good track record in the minors. Hasn't put it together in the bigs yet.
Tyler Lumsden - Basically, J.P. Howell (A better ERA, but fewer strikeouts).
Daniel Cortes - A strikeout pitcher who's still learning the strike zone.

Hmm... seems like Moore thinks the team might need some pitching.

The Gathwright acquisition was mostly about defense (he also draws quite a few walks) and the Gotay for Keppinger swap was pretty much a crap shoot move. All of the trades from the past week have had one clear goal: improve the rotation in next year and 2008.

With big boppers like Billy Butler, Justin Huber and Alex Gordon waiting in the wings, this may be an exciting team to keep track of in the next couple of years.

The Devil Feels a Draft

Last night, Angel Berroa was given two free passes by Ervin (not "Magic") Santana.

I don't want to overplay the magnitude of this information, but it was perhaps the worst pitching performance against the Royals ever.

Seriously, how do you walk Angel twice? Don't you know his stats? Last night's two unintentional walks now represent twenty-two percent of his total for the entire year!

I mean, if you think you're on the verge of walking Berroa a second time in one game, don't you just plunk him instead? He gets hit by pitches all the time. Nobody would suspect that. I say you groove one right between the rib cage and the hip. A nice soft breaking ball that puts him on base and saves your reputation.

Ervin? Are you listening to me?

In other news, the Royals traded Ruben Gotay to the Mets for Jeff Keppinger. Both players have put up similar career numbers, but Keppinger is a little bit older, so I don't really know what the point of this trade is.

Probably the biggest news in Keppinger's past is that he was included in the trade that sent Kris Benson from Pittsburgh to the Mets and unleashed the Anna Benson publicity firestorm upon the world. No word yet on whether Keppinger is married and if his wife is a semi-attractive publicity whore.

I guess we all can dream.

Joe Torre is an Idiot

Let's get one thing straight: I hate the Yankees. It's been hardwired into me since I was a kid and the annual Royals/Yankees tilt in the postseason was something people expected.

However, there is one Yankee player I will root for with gusto the remainder of this season: Aaron Guiel.

Guiel deserves to play for a winner. To play on a team where he'll rack up RBIs and runs scored because everybody surrounding him is a future hall of famer.

I wish Aaron nothing but the best in his new opportunity with the Yanks.

Today was Guiel's third game with the pinstripes and through the first seven innings he went 2 for 2, with a walk and a home run.

Than, according to Yahoo! the following happened:

- A. Rodriguez singled to left 
- M. Thornton relieved J. Contreras 
- J. Posada singled to left, A. Rodriguez to second 
- B. Williams walked, A. Rodriguez to third, J. Posada to second 
- A. Phillips hit for A. Guiel 
- B. McCarthy relieved M. Thornton 
- A. Phillips struck out swinging

What the hell!

A man is killing the ball and comes up with the bases loaded. He's playing in a stadium built for left-handed hitters, and you pull him for some dude hitting 250/277/405?

Joe Torre is an idiot. That righty/lefty match up he put so much effort into creating evaporated as soon as the White Sox made a pitching change.

Aaron Guiel earned the chance to drive in some runs in that at bat.

Man... why am I writing about the Yankees?

Winning Baseball? What!?!?

With the All Star break approaching, I thought I’d take a quick look at the improvement our lovable Royals have made.

To do this, I’m going to take a look at the Pythagorean Record of the team, which is based on runs scored and runs allowed. (For a further explanation of the formula, please click here and here.)

For those so interested, I’m using the ^1.83 model.

Currently, the team’s pythag winning percentage is 37%, which puts them on pace for just over 100 losses this season.

However, on a month by month basis, the boys in blue have made incredible strides towards becoming a respectable team.

Month  Pyth %
April   28%
May     29%
June    46%
July    59%

July’s results are of a negligible sample size, but the improvement for the month of June is certainly encouraging. That’s a 75-87 team over the course of the season, which is far from fantastic, but much closer to the league-average expectations many of us had heading into the season.

The chart below shows the winning percentage as a ten game rolling average.



Man, did April and May suck.

A 4-0 loss to the White Sox on April 19th had the Royals looking at a 14% winning percentage over the previous ten games. That’s a 23-win season. That’s beyond bad.

Luckily, the schedule requires teams to actually play the rest of their games. By May 2nd, the team seemed to have turned things around, posting a ten game pythag percentage of 43% despite losing to Detroit 4-1.

This being the Royals, though, they promptly lost 14 of their next 18 games and hit another low point on May 23, playing like a 30-132 team (18%) and losing to Detroit 8-5.

Thankfully, all has not been lost. From that point forward, we have seen a steady climb to mediocrity with a high point of a 65% pythag record over a ten game stretch from June 16th through the 27th (capped off by a 9-8 victory at Cincinnati).

Heading into the All-Star break, the Royals have managed to impersonate an above average major league baseball team. Over the last 30 games, the numbers say the Royals should be winning 53% of the time. That’s an 86-76 ball club only needing a few more pieces to contend.

That’s a team that’s fun to root for.

Enjoy Pittsburgh, Mark Redman.