Wednesday, April 27, 2005

Don't Panic

Don’t Panic

Okay, so the offense is bad. We all knew they would be bad. Nobody thought they would be this bad, though. A quick look at the team OPS provides us with this lovely number:


That number is good enough for 3rd place in the race for worst offense in the league, and puts about 180 points between us and the league-leading Orioles.

I am not here to beat a dead horse, though. Just like we all know that Ken Harvey wouldn’t be hitting like he is in Omaha for the big club, we all know that things have a way of evening out over the course of a baseball season.

Below is a look at the Current OPS of each Royals regular and the Projected OPS from Baseball Prospectus’s Weighted Mean PECOTA Projections.

                       Current OPS     Projected OPS
Matt Stairs           .983              .831
Joe McEwing       .950              N/A
Alberto Castillo    .884              .654
David Dejesus      .826              .801
Mike Sweeney      .798              .842
Emil Brown          .674              N/A
Terrence Long      .668              .729
Mark Teahen        .627              .697
Tony Graffanino  .625              .731
Angel Berroa       .620              .719
Ruben Gotay        .612              .751
John Buck            .496              .746
Eli Marrero          .376              .782
Matt Diaz             .222              N/A

Where to begin?

As you can see, almost all of the “hitters” (and I use the term loosely) have underperformed the pre-season projections.

Yes, it’s worrisome that three of the players who might see action in a given day weren’t even considered likely candidates for the major leagues before the season, but at least Alberto Castillo and Joe McEwing have filled in admirably.

The good news is that nobody is wildly outperforming their projections, which means there is a much better chance of improved offense than a continued collapse.

I know that it’s hard to stay positive when bloop-hits and mental errors contribute to five one-run losses over the last week, but it is still EARLY. The Royals are on pace to lose more games than the Tigers in 2003 in the same way that Brian Roberts is on pace for 56 home runs.

Mark my words: It ain’t gonna happen.

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