Dayton Can't be Done

The most famous Royals optimist out there, Rany Jazayerli, has hypothesized that the Jose Guillen deal is but one domino in a long chain of moves that General Manager Dayton Moore plans over this current off season.

It had better be.

According to Dan Szymborski’s early projections for next year, the best lineup the Kansas City Royals can produce in 2008 is this:

Name     P   Age  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS
Butler   dh  22   288  360  471  831
Gordon   3b  24   264  339  453  792
DeJesus  cf  28   287  355  431  786
Teahen   rf  26   279  351  431  782
Gload    1b  32   292  332  447  779
Guillen  lf  32   262  327  432  759
German   2b  30   284  364  383  747
Buck     c   27   232  301  394  695
Pena     ss  27   270  294  354  648

Running the numbers through the lineup analysis tool on Baseball Musings, the most this lineup could hope to produce is 4.90 runs a game.

In 2007, the Royals averaged 4.36 runs a game.

If these projections were to hold true, the Royals would end up with approximately 89 more runs in 2008 then they had in 2007. The quick and dirty rule is that 10 runs equal one win, so let’s say that through the addition of Jose Guillen and the projected improvement of other young players, the Royals will be tacking on nine extra wins next year.

That would put them at 78 wins... 83 if you want to go by Pythagorean record.

83 wins will not get it done in the American League Central.

Dayton needs to do more.